The Future Of Publishing
Many ask about the realistic future of Publishing.
Below there is a simple presentation and following that, some words to accompany the slides.
The Future of Publishing June2010
Slide 2 – 4: Nobody can predict the future…that’s what they say…..evidence suggests that most predictions are wide of the mark.
However, when one predicts the future in terms of sociological or technological trends, you could argue that some things are ‘hunches’ that turn out to have been pretty much in the right direction.
As the co-founder at this fluid world I ensure this is added to the learning and development we run with clients, and incorporated with the strategic consultancy we provide – along with specialist execution through my other company JMA. I’m also a proud member of The Futures Agency alongside Gerd Leonhard, Alan Moore and others, where our sense of the future can enable other companies to get an idea of the way things seem to be heading.
Slide 5 – 8: Even for the ‘enlightened’, predicting the future is a tricky business. Check out some of the predictions that have been made over the years…
Slide 9 – 10: And now – if you search for ‘the future of publishing’ you get over 710k results… I only have 10 ideas here…hope some make sense.
Slide 11: 1. People will pay for what they value – but not for the things they are forced to pay for.
Obviously this goes against a great deal of corporate thinking. As predictably as Godwin’s Law appearing in online conversations, the statement that ‘people will have no choice but to pay’ is inevitable…and in my opinion, totally unrealistic.
Our entire technological landscape enables people to find alternative ways of experiencing, interacting and consuming yet many of the ‘powers that be’ seem hell bent on squaring a circle. Swimming cluelessly against the sociological tide.
Slide 12 – 13: 2. Winning publishers will be flexible and agile, embracing emerging platforms – and methodology of distribution will be more vital than presentation of destination.
Flexibility and agility is extremely hard in companies with a certain amount of size, hierarchy and legacy. Nevertheless, the winners in publishing will be the ones who are able to adapt to new trends, new behaviours and new formats, embracing new tools, platforms and channels.
In the distributive and connected world in which we live, the methodology of adaption and embracement will be more vital than the presentation of singular destinations.
Yes, it’s important to have a great publisher site, but we all know that people can consume content wherever and whenever they like. Due to this we will be duty bound to get the distribution right, on all platforms. The total answer isn’t ‘an iPhone App’ by the way…even if your boss has just got one.
Slide 14 – 15: 3. Open, de-centralised publishers will win and closed silo’d publishers will lose.
This is the exact same point as found in my recent presentation: ‘The Future of Mobile Marketing‘.
Starfish are de-centralised organisms. Spiders are centralised.
Cut off the leg of a spider and it’s disabled. Cut off it’s head and it’s dead.
If you cut off a leg of a starfish, another one grows in it’s place. But get this:
The leg that was cut off, grows into another starfish.
This is because the main organs are replicated across all parts. Ultimately, it can run leaderless, centre-less and in a fundamentally flexible way.
If you consider this in a business context, the companies that are operate like this can’t really be competed with. Some ask whether this is realistic. Al Qaeda or Wikipedia certainly think so…
In any industry/religion/movement, organisations like this are essentially super-powered. The mobile and marketing industry is no different.
Adopting a structure that can behave autonomously, a structure that can partner on a whim yet act alone on a whim – is impossible to track, predict or slow.
This is the ideal structure and my prediction is that the companies that inherit this will win – the others being at their mercy.
For more reading on this point, visit: http://www.starfishandspider.com/
Slide 16-17: 4. The definition of ‘print’ will change – just as the process of watching TV, listening to radio and reading news has changed.
Changing definitions, rather than claiming THE END OF PRINT, is far more realistic.
The below clip says it all. It’s only 2 minutes or so – give it your attention, it’s worth it.
Slide 18: 5. Citizen journalism will fundamentally affect the publishing industry.
Even if you work for a company that cannot work with citizens or incorporate ‘outside’ content, I predict the sea-change that is brewing will affect you nonetheless.
The are billions of enabled machines out on the streets, in the hands of people who are starting to realise the latent power they have. People are increasingly armed if not deployed.
The ease of creating, editing and publishing will increasingly enable those, who have had no voice, to be able to shout loud and influentially.
Whilst the debate rages on about whether citizen journalists are ‘as good as professionals’, people will continue to speak amongst themselves and change behaviour and belief of others.
Basically you can choose whether to harness this or not…which leads us to point 6
Slide 19: 6. Harnessing the wisdom of the crowds will be proven as a competitive advantage.
This will come as a shock to the big fat leaders in publishing but the power and wisdom of the crowds eclipses any amount of budget in any style of glass table boardroom.
The last 100 years have been the opposite. The closed door publishers have enjoyed the power over the people – broadcasting messages at times fitting to themselves.
Now content and broadcast control is in the hands of the people and I predict this isn’t a fad that will be reversed.
Harnessing this involves a combination of bravery, humility and trust. Reference ‘Oh My News‘ for an example
Slide 20 – 21: 7. Multiple business models will exist, with no single ‘solution’ winning – crossing over industry types to aggregate revenue streams.
I predict there will be a number of business models that will be found to work moving forward, however I predict the most compelling will be those that cross over into other industries and aggregate other sources of revenue.
The publishers that do best will be those that look outside of their own business and see what other levels of value they can provide by partnering and merging with other products and services.
Slide 22 – 23: 8. Consumption will be markedly different between alternative machines and screens – people won’t be forced into unsuitable experiences.
Just because a device is able to do something, doesn’t mean people are willing to do it on the device.
That sentence pretty much sums up this whole point. It’s very simple. Some machines and screens are more suited to certain experiences than others. Even with flat rate data on mobile, the experience of watching an hour long TV interview on a 3.5″ screen may or may not be what people en masse choose to do in the future…
But before you write in defending mobile TV, I am only making an analogy – I have no problem with your business plan or area of interest – what I am concerned about is the current assumption by many that device capability equals demand. It doesn’t.
Moving forward I doubt we will see people forced into experiences that are unsuitable.
Slide 24: 9. Differentiation of publisher offering will be from lateral innovation rather than solely improving content.
Many have said that content is king, then others say context is king…personally I’m not a Royalist so I’ll leave the conjecture and rhetoric to those who write soundbites.
For a publisher to truly differentiate in the future, I predict that non-incremental innovation will be needed. The same could be said for many industries but in the publishing industry specifically, the improvement of content is already not enough.
The prior points have hopefully outlined areas where proper innovation (and indeed disruption) could take place.
To stand out in a busy crowd, you’re gonna need to be more than ‘interesting’ or ‘better’. I’m not even sure you could get away with just painting a cow purple anymore. Time for a new soundbite perhaps.
Slide 25: 10. The ease of discovering, sharing and purchasing will determine success as much as the content itself.
It seems such a simple point to end off with, almost like a throw-away line.
“Ease of discovery? Easy – we have SEO.”
“Ease of sharing? Haven’t you seen our ‘send to a friend’ button?”
“Ease of purchase? Hey, add to cart bro.”
Well it looks like you’re all set.
Unless of course there is an unsaid delta between what is commonly seen as ‘best practice’ and actual public expectation.
We often judge ourselves on our peers. We pay usability companies to run A/B comparable tests on our competitors, benchmarking ourselves to see if we are better, the same, or worse.
We run surveys with sample groups to ask them whether our content is easy to consume.
We ask Dave, the guy who is ‘always online’ to let us know whether our shopping cart is ‘fully functional’…and all the while we take the information as being indicative of some personal KPI.
In closing, my advice for the future is this:
Never, EVER assume that you are publishing what people always want.
Never, EVER assume that your content is as easy as it could be to discover.
Never, EVER think that your content is as easy to share as people would like.
Never, EVER believe that people find it as easy to purchase as they would like.
Your success is as equally down to these factors as your fabulous content itself.
I would recommend a mindset of perpetual struggle. Perpetual dissatisfaction with what you have achieved. Not in a negative way – not in a way that makes the people you work with feel like shit.
I mean in a way that is constantly and urgently pushing forward. Sure you have your development cycle and your ‘mobile plans for 2010/2011′ but is that really enough?
Surely all your competitors have one too?
How boring.
Push it further. Be brave. Stand out.
If you get sacked for pushing, join a company with the courage to push more. If there isn’t one, set up your own. You will already have an advantage as the rest maybe haven’t got the balls.
Don’t be intimidated by massive organisations who seem to have the omnipotence and market-share to swallow you up. It’s a nonsense. Most of the companies from 40 years ago that were just as big, evaporated in a cloud of egocentric gluttony. NOBODY is too big to fail.
All of the points in this presentation share a common theme of thinking different, and in general the publishing industry needs to shift toward this mentality for the benefit of every single one of us.
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Thanks for your time.
Namaste
” open and decentralised publishers will win” —very interesting statement! does this also refer to os platform ( iphone, andriod…), payment?? or anything esle?
THX a lot!
S
sure…remove the word publishers and replace with whatever commercial vehicle you want…