The Gentle Art Of Disruption
In an industry where new technology threatens an entire chunk of a value chain, I find it interesting how quick and easy we find it to rubbish the threatening factors.
Today I heard (from a senior advisor to bank card companies), that mobiles wouldn’t be a threat to bank cards because it’s currently too awkward to remember to carry a mobile.
A secondary reason given was the current lack of ability to read transaction and statement details on mobile screens.
The third and final reason was the current concern over where money is moving and a lack of trust in mobile technology.
Surely we are aware of the probabilty of carrying a phone and the increase in acceptance of mobilised content? Plus, are we not aware that, historically, trust has to be earned and (as with email replacing letters), once trust is there; adoption is fast?
Nevertheless, my interest in challenges like these are based on transient factors that can change. All three reasons include the word ‘current’ and all three were met with vigorous nodding of heads (by the room of bank card people).
Thus, the perceived risk associated is actually down to predictions of the status quo maintaining and a slow speed of change.
It’s more about keeping stuff stable and avoiding inconvenient truth.
However, you would have to be living in a cave, without any media, to predict that any status quo will maintain and that change will be slow…
I believe the safest bet would be that change will be faster than thought and that we may not necessarily see it happening (or coming). Sure I have some predictions but my main ones are those.
In my first book, written for the music industry almost 10 years ago, I advised that any new venture should be predicted to cost twice as much as thought, make half the amount of money and take twice as long to happen.
Also, going against sociological trends is totally unrealistic and involves significant backlash. Expensive backlash at that.
Guy Hands at EMI and Steve Ballmer at Microsoft think different. As do Rupert Murdoch and Fergal Sharkey.
Today in the comms industry, people have been shocked and stunned by the news that the Google Nexus phone will be sold in January 2010 from their own site, unlocked.
I find it incredible that this wasn’t predictable in some form. It’s not a massive leap in imagination to think about what type of ‘outrageous’ move Google could make. And trust me, it’s just the start.
Just because the market structures currently look intact, doesn’t mean they are stable.
Have a think about what could really screw your market. Have a think about what would kill your company.
Then do it. Re-define your market.
This is a solid way of ensuring you lead the way.
Singer sewing machines died away due to cheaper clothes and stronger threads. But they just made better and better sewing machines.
Whatever it is you do – whatever business you are in – make a note of what would totally finish you off. However big you are.
Bear in mind someone, somewhere, has probably worked it out and is setting about disrupting your market.
In a time of fast change, it’s time to move fast. Move strong. Move definitely.
No company is too big to worry about it. Just ask Singer.
Let’s end on a positive though….
If you have worked out what would disrupt your market and you are not able to change the company you are in…it’s time to set up a little side project my friend.
And count me in. You know where I am.
