The Fascinating Unknown
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I enjoy getting asked for advice about business challenges.
The advice sought tends to be drawing on my experience in certain areas and its an honour to be asked to help.
Over time I have found it interesting that the questions asked are rarely the questions that need to be asked, but then that’s the thing with learning sometimes – we don’t know what we don’t know. It is only from experience that you can see clearly. All of us have a lot to learn, and the second you stop learning, you stop growing as a human.
For instance, in the current market that is fascinated with mobile advertising, mobile marketing and social media, opinions are formed from our own interpretation of events, business models and prejudices. We frame circumstances upon our own canvas which is peppered with input from other ‘trusted’ sources.
At the time of writing, one only needs to be visible to be seen as knowledgeable or, in the extreme, heroic. The personal bias of some, skews the perception of others, creating an almost totally artificial environment of ‘expertise’ which is often built on virtually no experience other than opinion.
But how do we know who to learn from?
- The recent acquisition of Admob by Google has piqued the attention of the most skeptic observers of mobile advertising and, quite rightly, you would be well advised to learn from people like Admob’s Russell Buckley, about what the words ‘scale’ and ‘reach’ mean in terms of mobile advertising.
- The work that SPRX are doing with Layar is certainly niche at the time of writing, but by the time augmented reality is commonplace, you will see many others who will place themselves as experts in the field. However, when that happens, it will still be the guys and girls behind the early applications (like Layar) who will have the most experience of what works and what doesn’t.
- The recent announcement by O2 about their ‘More’ service, along with almost every Mobile Network trying out similar methods, is a fairly major validation of the original Blyk model which set out to prove that linking people up to experiences they like, is seen by many as valuable. Don’t fall for the red herring of examining the feasibility of an ad-funded MVNO, the engagement value for people and brands should the focal point there – a point that most continue to miss.
In any circumstance of duplication, many (although not necessarily in the examples above..), enter a space without inheriting or accessing any expertise. The illusion of understanding is a pandemic in business, and, I believe, will be the root cause of the business disasters I predict throughout 2010 – especially around permission and preference models.
In the below chart, the green line (left) is Blyk and the red line (right) is a.n.other company attempting a similar permission/preference model. The vertical gap is the difference between what a new entrant thinks they know about such a model, versus what they actually do know. The delta creates the ‘risk time’ and within this, I predict, we shall see diminished user experience, churn off mobile networks, closing down of business units and stakeholder/shareholder distrust.
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The learnings and experience from years of trial and error, are impossible to gather from reading analyst reports, or quick coffee chats with people who have ‘been there’.
Provided that you are able to see the value in people with experience, most are fairly easy to get to and are always interested in potential new projects – however, the best results come from having a value exchange that is clear for all. Investing into people with experience is almost always going to provide returns that are over and above a standard hire.
But experience doesn’t always need to be around the exact subject matter. A proposed offering for a younger demographic demands insight into the way younger people think, that blatantly won’t come from old boys in suits. A proposed offering for Formula 1 motor racing fans demands insight into the ways that people adore the sport, by people who adore the sport.
As with so many challenges I see, the technologists and financiers need a better understanding of psychology. Human to human interaction is a different science than the methodology and systems applied in many businesses of the current age.
Understanding the way people are will provide the best chances of success in a social and enabled world. Let’s prioritise that in business plans. My bet is that the ones who understand will eclipse those who don’t, rapidly and regardless of their current status in the market.
It’s an exciting time.
