Macro Trend 2: Physical Is Increasingly Virtual
Now we have the tools to express, purchase and discover things without physical entities being necessary, we increasingly do so.
It’s not unusual for condolence, congratualtion or celebration to happen via virtual transmission (SMS, IM, tweet, etc), yet having the same sentiment as writing a card or a letter and posting it through a letterbox.
It’s not unusual for players of games to spend money on virtual goods. Mobwars on Facebook makes millions of dollars in selling products but no physical stock changes hands.
When Second Life started, I paid real money (converted to Linden Dollars, the Second Life currency) to buy masses of virtual land. I then divided it up and sold it for more Linden Dollars, then quickly withdrew in real money. I made a significant profit, very fast, but nothing physical was bought or sold and I never left my seat.
Conference organisers are looking more into Telepresence solutions to hold virtual events. Hewlett Packard held their own exhibition and 200,000 attended but nobody physically went anywhere. No plane tickets were bought and the technology used can today be rented in London for £300/hr.
The manufacture of physical products that people are increasingly happy to buy virtual replacements of, suffer an extreme risk of being marginalised.
Hopes that people “will always buy papers, books and cards” are fundamentally flawed as are hopes that sending a “good old fashioned letter will always be the best way of showing you care” or that “buying a CD is always going to win over an MP3″.
A while ago a 16yr old said to me that his mate was “so old fashioned he still downloads music”.
Think about it.
In actuality, the dominance of virtual has a life-changing effect on the postal system, logistic companies, the gift market, the publishing industry and the entertainment industry to name a few.
But this is just the start.
Technological advances in augmented and virtual reality will fundamentally redefine what our future generations perceive as ‘real’.
Just as personal recommendation has out-gunned the power of advertiser communication, the market of virtual, instant, free, customisable and extensible platforms, products and services will diminish the physical world and it’s already tumbling profits.
Thus, I attest that increasingly virtual experience is more than the promise of holographic pornography. It signals a redefinition of all trade.
Globally.
Now.
